The idea of expanding the WMO Severe Weather Forecast Demonstration Project (SWFDP) to the Eastern Caribbean area had been discussed in 2015 and 2016 by the WMO Regional Management Group for North America, Central America and the Caribbean. The concept was promoted by the representative of the Caribbean Meteorological Organization (CMO) within that Group. In mid-2016, a formal request was made to WMO to expand its SWFDP to this region, recognizing that the States and Territories that would be most impacted and involved had already been reviewing existing components that are promoted under the SWFDP concept, such as (i) the implementation of the Common Alerting Protocol ( CAP) standard; and (ii) Impact-based Weather Forecasts and Warnings.
The Regional WMO Management Group decided to build on the existing collaboration between CMO and the French Meteorological Service (Météo-France), particularly those elements that can be built into a SWFDP, such as coordination among Meteorological Services. CMO and Météo-France had signed a set of formal "Working Arrangements" in June 2016 to govern the scientific and technical collaboration between the two institutions.
The Severe Weather Forecasting Programme (formerly Severe Weather Forecast Demonstration Project) in the Eastern Caribbean envisages a key role for
the Météo-France operations in Martinique.
The Project is being developed along the following lines:
(i) The SWFP in RA IV would cover all the islands from Trinidad in the south to Puerto Rico in the North,
with special arrangements for Haiti;
(ii) As SWFP uses a “Cascading Forecasting Process” – from global to regional to national,
Global Centres in Canada, France, ECMWF and the USA will provide global Numerical
Weather Prediction (NWP) and Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) products for the Project;
(iii) The Météo-France Centre in Martinique will function as the Regional Forecast Support Facility
(RFSF) for the Project; utilizing the global input to provide daily severe weather forecast guidance
products for use by the National Meteorological Services of the participating island States and
Territories;
(iv) The National Meteorological Services will utilize guidance products from the RFSF and
their own to issue local advisories and severe weather warnings, including liaising with
products for use by the National Meteorological Services of the participating island States.
(v) The RFSF in Martinique will maintain close collaboration and coordination with the
Miami-based US National Hurricane Centre;
(vi) An organ of the CMO - the Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH) -
which, among other functions, is a WMO Training Centre, a WMO Centre of Excellence
for Satellite Meteorology and a WMO Regional Climate Centre, will provide technical
support for the SWFP. It will focus on capacity development through specialized
training workshops to enhance the interpretation and use of forecast products in order to
improve severe weather forecasting skills and strengthen engagement with users.
Area of the SWFP bounded by red square
An Expert Group created for the Severe Weather Forecast Demonstration Project, comprises the following members:
• Dr Arlene Laing, CMO (Co-Chair);
• TBD, Météo-France, Martinique (Co-Chair);
• Mr Joseph Isaac, Meteorological Service of Sint Maarten;
• Mr Dale Destin, Antigua & Barbuda Meteorological Service;
• Mr Dan Brown, NOAA/NHC, RSMC Miami;
• Mr Jim Nelson, NOAA/Weather Prediction Center;
• Mr Andre Giguère, , Environment and Climate Change Canada; and
• Ms Kathy-Ann Caesar, CIMH.
The SWFDP Expert Group, along with other invited experts, held project formulation meetings in Martinique (December 2016) and Florida (May 2017). The group developed the Implementation Plan in preparation for a 2018 commencement of activities. The Expert Group has been identified as the Regional Sub-Programme Management Team (RSMT) to guide the SWFP and its eventual transition from a project to an operational phase. Once the operational phase is reached, a regional entity would be required to manage the programme activities. The RSMT and the WMO Secretariat agreed that the Caribbean Meteorological Organization (CMO) and Partners will be the regional entity to support SWFP in the operational phase.